Lower-than-expected inflation data sparks a rally in bonds & stocks.
This morning the Consumer Price Index Report (CPI) for October showed a 0.2% increase from September, 0.1% less than expected. The small yet positive surprise sparked a large drop in the 10-year Treasury bond to 4.4%. Stocks took the bond markets’ lead and gained close to 2% at midday.
The CPI report showed inflation moderating with help from lower energy prices and used car prices, while labor costs are still increasing at a high pace. The sharp gain in stocks and bonds is possibly due to many investors having low allocations to long-term assets, while holding too much in money market accounts.
In most client portfolios, fortunately, we are fully invested and positioned for the normally strong November to April period. Several factors have made us more optimistic than most investors, including the put/call model that has been in the “buy” zone for several weeks. Yes, this is good news for financial markets.