Many factors are pushing up interest rates. The 10-year Treasury bond is yielding 4.9%, just under 5%, a key and psychological level many investors are eyeing. The yield has risen sharply from 4% in 6 weeks. A break above 5% leaves investors wondering… where will the next level be – 6% or 7%? The impact of materially higher interest rates has many negative implications for the economy, society, and world order beyond this brief update.
Action Taken
While the declines in stock and bond markets have recently been normal, we are concerned that a break in interest rates above 5% could precipitate a larger decline in all financial markets. We have reduced some equity exposure by selling stocks that are underperforming the SP500. In addition, we purchased a position in the inverse SP500 ETF that moves 2-fold the opposite direction of the SP500 and added to the Gold ETF, (GLD). Further, we may increase these “hedge” positions as needed to protect portfolios.
Opportunities in the Future
Beneath the surface of the equity market, the average stock is down, and many have gotten slammed and maybe bargains. Bonds have also gotten cheaper as yields have risen. Once calmness returns to the financial markets, opportunities will grow. A 10-year high grade tax-free municipal bond with a 5% yield is tempting. In the equity market, small companies are cheap and could be targets for acquisition by private investors and larger firms. Also, financial lending firms could benefit from higher interest rates.