The SP500 and the Bloomberg Bond Index both ended the 3rd quarter on a downtrend. The SP500 is down 3.6% but up 12.7% for the year to date. In the fixed-income markets, the Bloomberg Bond Index is down 3.4% for the quarter and down 1.4% for the year to date.
Stocks gained ground in July as positive earnings results propelled investors’ interest. Nvidia was again the star performer with results exceeding expectations by 30% as demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI) semiconductor chips soared.
In August, investors shifted their attention to the rise in oil prices and the Federal Reserve. Oil prices have risen $20 a barrel over the last 90 days due to Saudi Arabia cutting production to increase oil prices. The inflationary implication of higher oil prices spooked investors as the myopic Federal Reserve indicated it may continue to raise interest rates. Higher oil prices increased the risk of prolonged inflation, thus fear of higher interest rates for longer periods has spooked investors from stocks and bonds.

The big event of the quarter was the Federal Reserve’s September 20th meeting. As expected, there was no change in policy, but Chair Jay Powell’s comments during the question/answer session instigated a selloff in bonds and stocks. Powell commented about several economic risks and inferred that interest rates might rise again and remain high for a long time. This double whammy commenced a weeklong sell-off in stocks and bonds.